While McCain’s newfound mantra of “Drill, Drill,Drill” may have helped him a bit in the opinion polls, the view in the streets of Denver is that Energy is a winning issue for the Democrats in the Fall. Numerous events and panels address Green issues, with a special focus on alternative energy — but the real question is whether the Dmeocrtas can frame the issue in a way that wins for them in time for the November election.

Congressman Ed Markey (D-MA) gave some signals as to what the strategy will be as part of a panel on “The Politics of Green” sponsored by The New Republic.  For the twelve years that the Republicans controlled Congress and did nothing about fuel mileage standards, alternative energy and a host of other energy issues. The rhetoric of the Republicans for the past year, however, has been to say yes to everything — better fuel efficiency, alternative energy research and development, tax credits for hybrid vehicles — but they then vote against these proposals (or filibuster them) saying that they want oil drilling to be included. That is they want all options, or it seems, none. Well, Markey explained, this September they will get the chance to vote on an “all of the above” bill and then we all will see what they will do.  He called it the most critical debate of this Fall and one that could define the issue for the campaign.

What exactly the “All of the Above” bill will be is still unclear.  As the Congress was about to go on recess, a group of ten Senators from both parties met and came up with a compromise plan to address the gridlock in the congressional energy debate. This “Gang of Ten” — Five Democrats, Five Republicans — put forth their proposal that could be the “all of the above” plan that Markey was talking about.  The proposal includes:

• A Goal of having 85% of all new vehicles running on non-petroleum-based fuels within 20 years;
• Providing billions of dollars in research and development to help automakers develop these new vehicles;
• Up to $7500 in tax credits to consumers who buy vehicles that run on renewable fuels;
• Requires the federal government to open up some new areas of the Gulf of Mexico to oil drilling and exploration, and;
• Allows offshore oil drilling at least 50 miles off the coasts of Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia, but only if those states give their permission.
• The bill is paid for by canceling tax breaks for big oil totaling $30 billion and by getting some royalty revenues from Gulf of Mexico oil drilling.

So will the congressional Democrats allow some offshore oil drilling in order to get some other energy gains as well as turn the energy issue around for the November election?  That is unclear. But what is clear is that the five Republicans in the Gang of Ten have gotten hell from a lot of conservatives. They do not like the removal of the big oil tax credits and the subsidies for research that would decrease the power of Big Oil. There is also the sense that passing this bill would basically cut off future debate about drilling in ANWR, which is a critical element to the oil industry’s demands from the Republicans. And John McCain doesn’t seem to be embracing the plan.

The odds are that even if this plan passed the House that it would not pass through a Senate filibuster — but if it did wouldn’t it be fun to see Bush squirm as to whether he should veto or sign a bill that does contain some offshore oil drilling? Signing it would mean that the issue would be removed from this year’s election. Vetoing it would mean that he is an utter and complete shill for the oil industry, not that that is anything new.

But in the end, the Democrats may need to decide which pill is worse — some offshore oil drilling or losing the issue to the Republicans, at least in teh short-run.